Another Overly Active Hurricane Season Is Predicted
This time of year there is often a tendency to think, “Hey, maybe hurricane season won’t be so bad this year. After all, we’re already a month into it and we haven’t had any yet.”
But here’s the flaw with that kind of thinking. Yes, the six-month hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
But the first and last months of that season are frequently “bookend” months. The real action usually occurs from July through October. Just consider some of the strongest, deadliest and costliest hurricanes to hit America in the last 20 years or so.
Katrina (2005) and Harvey (2017) occurred in August, while Wilma (2005), Sandy (2012) and Michael (2018) all made landfall in October. September hurricanes included Ivan (2004), Ike (2008) and Irma (2017).
2020 Storms Blew Us Away
Many of us vividly recall how bad things got last year. There were a record number of named storms (30). Fourteen developed into hurricanes and six became major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
Category 4 Laura made landfall in Louisiana in late August. It resulted in more than two dozen deaths and about $10 billion in property damage.
Sally followed several weeks later. The Category 2 storm was the first hurricane to make landfall in Alabama since 2004. It spawned a number of tornadoes and caused at least $8 billion in damages.
Hurricane Delta was the third Category 4 storm of the year when it arrived in October. This hurricane, which killed six people, made landfall in Louisiana.
6th Straight Above-Average Season?
That was then and this is now. There’s no way we’ll have another hurricane season as bad as last year’s, right?
Probably not. All-time records are not usually set two years in a row. But 2020 was so bad, we could be in for another horrific hurricane season even if we don’t match last year’s numbers.
And in fact, the experts are predicting a sixth consecutive above-average hurricane season for 2021.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a 60 percent chance of an above-normal season. And a 30 percent chance of a normal season. There is only a 10 percent chance of a below-average season.
What’s in Store for 2021?
Forecasters base their predictions on several factors. Including atmospheric conditions and Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Warmer-than-average sea temperatures, as we have right now, increase the chances of hurricane formation.
The Colorado State University weather team is known for its accuracy. They’re calling for 17 named storms in 2021. Including eight hurricanes, with four becoming major.
AccuWeather is predicting 16 to 20 named storms for this year’s hurricane season. The average is 12. They also predict seven to 10 hurricanes. With three to five becoming major.
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring.” So says Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce.
Florida May Be Due
Although many devastating hurricanes have made landfall in a variety of states, Florida is the one struck most often.
Since 1851, the Sunshine State has been hit by 121 hurricanes. Thirty-seven of them were major storms.
Amazingly, none of the record-breaking hurricanes in 2020 made landfall in Florida. Despite the state possessing 1,350 miles of coastline. I don’t know anyone who’s banking on that happening again.
Philip Klotzbach is a lead hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. Here’s what he says.
“Florida got really lucky last year. But now the big concern is that one of these storms is going to actually hit a major metropolitan area. And cause massive amounts of damage.”
An Offer You Can’t Refuse
Hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, windstorms… they’re all likely to strike over the course of the next few months.
And that often means a run on food and other items at the grocery stores. Which leads to empty shelves and disruptions in the food supply chain.
Fortunately, this is something you don’t have to worry about if you have a good supply of survival food handy. It will give you peace of mind that others around you won’t have.